| Who's #1? Bob Loblaw |
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Being #1 is a special thing; college teams dream of it, players live for that moment, and every fan who has
ever watched a game has at one point or another (regardless of their team’s actual ranking) thrown their index
finger skyward to signify their personal belief in their squad. Every year in the spring, though, being #1
brings on a different set of responsibilities for one lucky (or unlucky) NFL team. Someone has to have the
first pick in the NFL draft each April, which means that team gets their choice of the ripest, prime college
football talent available.
Unless there is a trade, having the #1 pick means you were the worst team in the league the year before,
so instant impact is needed from the player who is chosen first. Being the first pick in the draft means more
money, exposure, and hype for the player chosen. But it also means more pressure, responsibility, and blame
if success is not achieved, as you become the face of the franchise and hope of the future on a team in need
of major improvement. Being the #1 pick will always be something that is mentioned about that player on his
resume and living up to the hype is often difficult.
There are many questions I’m sure we’ve all got related to this topic: What is the success rate of the #1
picks in the NFL, and how have they affected their team? Is there a particular position that should be chosen
more often with the top pick than others? What kind of success have teams had after picking #1? And the
item that is most often dissected, who could they have picked that became a future star?
In order to find some answers, let’s examine the #1 draft picks since 1990, and the respective success of
the individual picked and the team that picked them, to determine if having the first pick is a guarantee of
success.
ever watched a game has at one point or another (regardless of their team’s actual ranking) thrown their index
finger skyward to signify their personal belief in their squad. Every year in the spring, though, being #1
brings on a different set of responsibilities for one lucky (or unlucky) NFL team. Someone has to have the
first pick in the NFL draft each April, which means that team gets their choice of the ripest, prime college
football talent available.
Unless there is a trade, having the #1 pick means you were the worst team in the league the year before,
so instant impact is needed from the player who is chosen first. Being the first pick in the draft means more
money, exposure, and hype for the player chosen. But it also means more pressure, responsibility, and blame
if success is not achieved, as you become the face of the franchise and hope of the future on a team in need
of major improvement. Being the #1 pick will always be something that is mentioned about that player on his
resume and living up to the hype is often difficult.
There are many questions I’m sure we’ve all got related to this topic: What is the success rate of the #1
picks in the NFL, and how have they affected their team? Is there a particular position that should be chosen
more often with the top pick than others? What kind of success have teams had after picking #1? And the
item that is most often dissected, who could they have picked that became a future star?
In order to find some answers, let’s examine the #1 draft picks since 1990, and the respective success of
the individual picked and the team that picked them, to determine if having the first pick is a guarantee of
success.
1990: Colts- Jeff George, QB, Illinois
At the time, the Colts badly needed a QB. George had the most upside on the board in a weak QB class. As a native of Indianapolis, he added a marketing and local-interest
dynamic that the Colts hoped would boost ticket sales. George played OK for a few years but was never the star Indy had hoped for and his issues with teammates eventually led
to a parting of ways. The Colts would nearly make the Super Bowl in 1995 after he was gone and Jim Harbaugh took over the reins, but George’s time in Indy was not one of
great success. He would bounce around the league and showed some of his pre-draft hype was not necessarily exaggerated as he had a big year in Minnesota later on. Stars
picked later in round 1: Junior Seau, Emmitt Smith.
1991: Cowboys-Russell Maryland, DL, Miami
Rocket Ismail was going to be the pick here, but the explosive playmaker from Notre Dame defected north to Canada for a huge payday and instant stardom. Once he was gone,
Dallas took Maryland, a defensive stalwart from The U. He would be a solid contributor on defense during the Cowboys Super Bowl runs, but was never a superstar. In a weak
draft he now looks like a good pick. The only prominent name passed over in round 1 was USC android, er, QB Todd Marinovich (wait, what happened to him?).
1992: Colts-Steve Emtman, DT, Washington
Amazingly, the Colts had the top two picks in this draft and went with Emtman and LB Quintin Coryatt to shore up their defense. Emtman’s career was cut short by injuries so
he can be looked at as a disappointment. Coryatt would play longer in Indy, but will always be remembered in NapTown for dropping an interception in the 1995 AFC title game
that could have assured the Colts of a Super Bowl trip. They could have picked Desmond Howard, who had an average career aside from winning a Super Bowl MVP for Green
Bay or Eagles CB Troy Vincent, but the first round in 1992 did not hold many future superstars.
1993: Patriots-Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State
This would have to be looked at as a quality pick. Bledsoe was the starter in New England for several years, led the Pats to the Super Bowl in 1996, and was their starter until
Tom Brady came to town and became a champion. No one can question this pick, as New England needed a QB and only Jerome Bettis and Willie Roaf stand out as stars that
were picked later in 1993’s 1st round.
1994: Bengals-Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State
Wilkinson had a decent NFL career, but the Bengals picking him to dominate the front line and add a spark as an Ohio guy never truly worked out. He did his job as a large space
eater for years on multiple teams but never became a star. Picking based on upside did not work here. In picking Wilkinson the Bengals passed on future stars Marshall Faulk,
Willie McGinest, and Trent Dilfer.
1995: Bengals (again)-Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State
Once again the Bengals picked first (usually not a good thing) and once again they whiffed. Carter was the top running back in the nation coming out of Penn State, but got hurt
quickly and never became a reliable starter. We will never know what his future would have held had he stayed healthy, but he was picked ahead of Tony Boselli, Steve McNair,
Joey Galloway, and Warren Sapp, all of whom have had strong careers. In a related note, the Bears took Heisman winner Rashaan Salaam in Round 1 and lived to regret it.
1996: New York Jets- Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC
Johnson had a good run in New York on the field but became unpopular off of it due to his antics and wanting the “damn ball” too much. Recently retired, he had a good career
for multiple teams and was one of the top receivers of his era. Other future stars in this first round were Jonathan Ogden, the perennial all pro tackle for Baltimore, Marvin
Harrison, and Eddie George. So it is hard to call Keyshawn a bad pick, as he ended up being pretty good, even though not all of his success was with the Jets.
1997: St Louis- Orlando Pace OT, Ohio State
This was a great pick by the Rams. Pace was the best player in college football in 1996 and will probably be the only offensive lineman who could have legitimately won the
Heisman Trophy. He has solidified the left side of the line in St Louis for years and was a cornerstone of the Rams back-to-back Super Bowl teams (won once) later on. Other
top players in round 1: Peter Boulware, Tony Gonzalez, Tarik Glenn, and Clark Sheffield’s idol, Rae Carruth.
1998: Indianapolis- Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee
Obviously a home run pick, as the future Hall of Famer has dominated defenses since his arrival and led the once woeful Colts to the Super Bowl title in 2007. He will go down
alongside Johnny U as the greatest Colt of all time and easily the best since the move to Indy. Other top players in the first round included: Fred Taylor, Randy Moss, and Charles
Woodson (who beat out Manning for the Heisman while leading Michigan to the National Championship in 1997). In a related note, the Bears picked RB Curtis Enis who failed to
ever make much impact in the league.
1999: Cleveland-Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky
This pick will be looked at as a flop, as Couch played a few years in Cleveland but is no longer even riding the pine in the NFL. No one is sure if he was not the right fit or if he
lacked certain skills to be a starting pro QB. In a deep draft, the Brown whiffed on the future as they missed picking Donovan McNabb, Edgerrin James, Ricky “Doobied”
Williams, Torry “Big Game” Holt, Champ Bailey (do you need a nickname when your name is Champ?), Jevon “The Freak” Kearse, Al Wilson, Daunte Culpepper, or Patrick
Kerney, all of whom have contributed far more than Couch ever did. Maybe Cleveland should have drafted a couch, sat on it, and done some more homework. In a related note,
the Bears picked Cade McNown, who never became their QB of the future and quickly disappeared.
2000: Cleveland (again)-Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State
The Browns managed to miss for the second straight year, not unlike their in-state rival earlier in the decade. Brown was often injured and is still a role player in the league, but
was never close to playing at the level of a top pick. If defense was the issue, Cleveland in hindsight, would have been far more fortunate to have picked Brian Urlacher (editor’s
note: See, the Bears have made SOME good draft picks) or Lavar Arrington. Other top first rounders included Plaxico Burress, Jamal Lewis, and Shaun Alexander. A lightly
regarded Michigan QB named Tom Brady was picked by New England in round SIX.
2001: Atlanta- Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech
If only the Falcons had known what Vick and his pals were up to in their dog shacks at his rural properties, they probably would not have traded up to get ol’ Ron Mexico, the
top athlete of the class and a dynamic multi-dimensional quarterback with tremendous upside. Vick had his moments of brilliance and was always considered dangerous by
defenses, but his arrest and conviction for dog fighting in 2007 left the Falcons with many internal and external problems. To call Vick a bust is harsh, as he had good years and
was a star, but to go to jail in the prime of your career tends to hurt your image and the team that picked you. First rounders the Falcons could have picked, all of whom are still
currently free men: Ladainian Tomlinson, Richard Seymour, Santana Moss, Todd Heap, Deuce McCallister, Steve Hutchinson, and Reggie Wayne.
2002: Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State
The future QB of a new franchise never materialized, as Carr got run over in Houston behind a weak offensive line, and now plays in Carolina. For the expansion Texans, picking
a quarterback was a priority and Carr was the top one. But like several other #1 QB’s, he never became the man in Houston, so this pick will be looked at negatively. Notable
players the Texans passed on in round 1 included Julius Peppers, Roy Williams (the safety), Ed Reed, Dwight Freeney, and Jeremy Shockey.
2003: Cincinnati: Carson Palmer, QB, USC
Even Cincy can’t miss on every #1 pick. This looks like a good one, as Palmer, after sitting out a year, led the Bengals to the playoffs before getting injured. He has come back
to be one of the top statistical QB’s in the league each year, though the Bengals need to return to and win in the playoffs to solidify his stardom. The only other prominent first
round picks in 2003 were Andre Johnson and Troy Polamalu, so Palmer certainly looks like the right guy at #1.
2004: New York Giants: Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi
After a trade with San Diego New York got Peyton’s brother to be their Quarterback of the Future. Until a month or so ago this pick was teetering on being a bust, but Eli’s play
over the last month in leading the Giants to the Super Bowl title has confirmed his status as a top QB and justified the Giants’ move to get him. We will see if this continues next
season, but he definitely appears to be their QB for years to come, making this a winning pick. They could have chosen Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy
Williams (the WR) or Kellen Winslow as well.
2005: San Francisco: Alex Smith, QB, Utah
When a team needs a QB they are at the mercy of the talent pool that year. The Colts got lucky and had a terrible record the year Peyton was graduating; meanwhile the Niners
took the best QB on the board in 2005, but so far Smith has not impressed. Having a different offensive coordinator each year as well as playing on a bad team does not help, so
we will hold judgment on him for a few more seasons. Had they not needed a QB, the Niners could have grabbed Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown, Marlin Jackson, Shawne
Merriman, or, to up the nightlife in Frisco, PacMan Jones.
2006: Houston: Mario Williams, DE, NC State
At the time this looked like a questionable pick, as the Texans passed on local star Vince Young, superstar-in-the-making Reggie Bush, and Matt Leinert to pick Williams, the top
defender on the board. Looking back now this pick looks genius as Williams is an All Pro in his second year, while Bush, Young, and Leinert have all struggled to be consistent or
stay healthy. The Texans have wised up to the fact that to win in the AFC South they have to beat the Colts and to do that they must get pressure on Peyton Manning, so the D
Line is vital. Picking Williams first may turn out to be the key move if the Texans want to continue to build a winner. Houston also nabbed Demeco Ryans, the defensive Rookie
of the Year, in round 2.
2007: Oakland, Jamarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Russell played sparingly in 2007 after holding out and learning the offense late, so no judgment can be passed on him at this time. He was the most athletic QB in years and the
Raiders are hoping he becomes their starter for years to come. Other top picks from 2007 that have shown brilliance as rookies include Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson, and Adrian
Peterson. Also, if Brady Quinn eventually surpasses Russell the Raiders will regret this pick.
2008-Miami-????
At the time, the Colts badly needed a QB. George had the most upside on the board in a weak QB class. As a native of Indianapolis, he added a marketing and local-interest
dynamic that the Colts hoped would boost ticket sales. George played OK for a few years but was never the star Indy had hoped for and his issues with teammates eventually led
to a parting of ways. The Colts would nearly make the Super Bowl in 1995 after he was gone and Jim Harbaugh took over the reins, but George’s time in Indy was not one of
great success. He would bounce around the league and showed some of his pre-draft hype was not necessarily exaggerated as he had a big year in Minnesota later on. Stars
picked later in round 1: Junior Seau, Emmitt Smith.
1991: Cowboys-Russell Maryland, DL, Miami
Rocket Ismail was going to be the pick here, but the explosive playmaker from Notre Dame defected north to Canada for a huge payday and instant stardom. Once he was gone,
Dallas took Maryland, a defensive stalwart from The U. He would be a solid contributor on defense during the Cowboys Super Bowl runs, but was never a superstar. In a weak
draft he now looks like a good pick. The only prominent name passed over in round 1 was USC android, er, QB Todd Marinovich (wait, what happened to him?).
1992: Colts-Steve Emtman, DT, Washington
Amazingly, the Colts had the top two picks in this draft and went with Emtman and LB Quintin Coryatt to shore up their defense. Emtman’s career was cut short by injuries so
he can be looked at as a disappointment. Coryatt would play longer in Indy, but will always be remembered in NapTown for dropping an interception in the 1995 AFC title game
that could have assured the Colts of a Super Bowl trip. They could have picked Desmond Howard, who had an average career aside from winning a Super Bowl MVP for Green
Bay or Eagles CB Troy Vincent, but the first round in 1992 did not hold many future superstars.
1993: Patriots-Drew Bledsoe, QB, Washington State
This would have to be looked at as a quality pick. Bledsoe was the starter in New England for several years, led the Pats to the Super Bowl in 1996, and was their starter until
Tom Brady came to town and became a champion. No one can question this pick, as New England needed a QB and only Jerome Bettis and Willie Roaf stand out as stars that
were picked later in 1993’s 1st round.
1994: Bengals-Dan Wilkinson, DT, Ohio State
Wilkinson had a decent NFL career, but the Bengals picking him to dominate the front line and add a spark as an Ohio guy never truly worked out. He did his job as a large space
eater for years on multiple teams but never became a star. Picking based on upside did not work here. In picking Wilkinson the Bengals passed on future stars Marshall Faulk,
Willie McGinest, and Trent Dilfer.
1995: Bengals (again)-Ki-Jana Carter, RB, Penn State
Once again the Bengals picked first (usually not a good thing) and once again they whiffed. Carter was the top running back in the nation coming out of Penn State, but got hurt
quickly and never became a reliable starter. We will never know what his future would have held had he stayed healthy, but he was picked ahead of Tony Boselli, Steve McNair,
Joey Galloway, and Warren Sapp, all of whom have had strong careers. In a related note, the Bears took Heisman winner Rashaan Salaam in Round 1 and lived to regret it.
1996: New York Jets- Keyshawn Johnson, WR, USC
Johnson had a good run in New York on the field but became unpopular off of it due to his antics and wanting the “damn ball” too much. Recently retired, he had a good career
for multiple teams and was one of the top receivers of his era. Other future stars in this first round were Jonathan Ogden, the perennial all pro tackle for Baltimore, Marvin
Harrison, and Eddie George. So it is hard to call Keyshawn a bad pick, as he ended up being pretty good, even though not all of his success was with the Jets.
1997: St Louis- Orlando Pace OT, Ohio State
This was a great pick by the Rams. Pace was the best player in college football in 1996 and will probably be the only offensive lineman who could have legitimately won the
Heisman Trophy. He has solidified the left side of the line in St Louis for years and was a cornerstone of the Rams back-to-back Super Bowl teams (won once) later on. Other
top players in round 1: Peter Boulware, Tony Gonzalez, Tarik Glenn, and Clark Sheffield’s idol, Rae Carruth.
1998: Indianapolis- Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee
Obviously a home run pick, as the future Hall of Famer has dominated defenses since his arrival and led the once woeful Colts to the Super Bowl title in 2007. He will go down
alongside Johnny U as the greatest Colt of all time and easily the best since the move to Indy. Other top players in the first round included: Fred Taylor, Randy Moss, and Charles
Woodson (who beat out Manning for the Heisman while leading Michigan to the National Championship in 1997). In a related note, the Bears picked RB Curtis Enis who failed to
ever make much impact in the league.
1999: Cleveland-Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky
This pick will be looked at as a flop, as Couch played a few years in Cleveland but is no longer even riding the pine in the NFL. No one is sure if he was not the right fit or if he
lacked certain skills to be a starting pro QB. In a deep draft, the Brown whiffed on the future as they missed picking Donovan McNabb, Edgerrin James, Ricky “Doobied”
Williams, Torry “Big Game” Holt, Champ Bailey (do you need a nickname when your name is Champ?), Jevon “The Freak” Kearse, Al Wilson, Daunte Culpepper, or Patrick
Kerney, all of whom have contributed far more than Couch ever did. Maybe Cleveland should have drafted a couch, sat on it, and done some more homework. In a related note,
the Bears picked Cade McNown, who never became their QB of the future and quickly disappeared.
2000: Cleveland (again)-Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State
The Browns managed to miss for the second straight year, not unlike their in-state rival earlier in the decade. Brown was often injured and is still a role player in the league, but
was never close to playing at the level of a top pick. If defense was the issue, Cleveland in hindsight, would have been far more fortunate to have picked Brian Urlacher (editor’s
note: See, the Bears have made SOME good draft picks) or Lavar Arrington. Other top first rounders included Plaxico Burress, Jamal Lewis, and Shaun Alexander. A lightly
regarded Michigan QB named Tom Brady was picked by New England in round SIX.
2001: Atlanta- Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech
If only the Falcons had known what Vick and his pals were up to in their dog shacks at his rural properties, they probably would not have traded up to get ol’ Ron Mexico, the
top athlete of the class and a dynamic multi-dimensional quarterback with tremendous upside. Vick had his moments of brilliance and was always considered dangerous by
defenses, but his arrest and conviction for dog fighting in 2007 left the Falcons with many internal and external problems. To call Vick a bust is harsh, as he had good years and
was a star, but to go to jail in the prime of your career tends to hurt your image and the team that picked you. First rounders the Falcons could have picked, all of whom are still
currently free men: Ladainian Tomlinson, Richard Seymour, Santana Moss, Todd Heap, Deuce McCallister, Steve Hutchinson, and Reggie Wayne.
2002: Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State
The future QB of a new franchise never materialized, as Carr got run over in Houston behind a weak offensive line, and now plays in Carolina. For the expansion Texans, picking
a quarterback was a priority and Carr was the top one. But like several other #1 QB’s, he never became the man in Houston, so this pick will be looked at negatively. Notable
players the Texans passed on in round 1 included Julius Peppers, Roy Williams (the safety), Ed Reed, Dwight Freeney, and Jeremy Shockey.
2003: Cincinnati: Carson Palmer, QB, USC
Even Cincy can’t miss on every #1 pick. This looks like a good one, as Palmer, after sitting out a year, led the Bengals to the playoffs before getting injured. He has come back
to be one of the top statistical QB’s in the league each year, though the Bengals need to return to and win in the playoffs to solidify his stardom. The only other prominent first
round picks in 2003 were Andre Johnson and Troy Polamalu, so Palmer certainly looks like the right guy at #1.
2004: New York Giants: Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi
After a trade with San Diego New York got Peyton’s brother to be their Quarterback of the Future. Until a month or so ago this pick was teetering on being a bust, but Eli’s play
over the last month in leading the Giants to the Super Bowl title has confirmed his status as a top QB and justified the Giants’ move to get him. We will see if this continues next
season, but he definitely appears to be their QB for years to come, making this a winning pick. They could have chosen Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy
Williams (the WR) or Kellen Winslow as well.
2005: San Francisco: Alex Smith, QB, Utah
When a team needs a QB they are at the mercy of the talent pool that year. The Colts got lucky and had a terrible record the year Peyton was graduating; meanwhile the Niners
took the best QB on the board in 2005, but so far Smith has not impressed. Having a different offensive coordinator each year as well as playing on a bad team does not help, so
we will hold judgment on him for a few more seasons. Had they not needed a QB, the Niners could have grabbed Braylon Edwards, Ronnie Brown, Marlin Jackson, Shawne
Merriman, or, to up the nightlife in Frisco, PacMan Jones.
2006: Houston: Mario Williams, DE, NC State
At the time this looked like a questionable pick, as the Texans passed on local star Vince Young, superstar-in-the-making Reggie Bush, and Matt Leinert to pick Williams, the top
defender on the board. Looking back now this pick looks genius as Williams is an All Pro in his second year, while Bush, Young, and Leinert have all struggled to be consistent or
stay healthy. The Texans have wised up to the fact that to win in the AFC South they have to beat the Colts and to do that they must get pressure on Peyton Manning, so the D
Line is vital. Picking Williams first may turn out to be the key move if the Texans want to continue to build a winner. Houston also nabbed Demeco Ryans, the defensive Rookie
of the Year, in round 2.
2007: Oakland, Jamarcus Russell, QB, LSU
Russell played sparingly in 2007 after holding out and learning the offense late, so no judgment can be passed on him at this time. He was the most athletic QB in years and the
Raiders are hoping he becomes their starter for years to come. Other top picks from 2007 that have shown brilliance as rookies include Joe Thomas, Calvin Johnson, and Adrian
Peterson. Also, if Brady Quinn eventually surpasses Russell the Raiders will regret this pick.
2008-Miami-????
So what does this tell us? Certainly each of these players was a star in college and had the talent to shine
at the next level. But some did and some did not. There are a myriad of reasons for these results: injuries,
change in scenery, size and speed and equally important, the team and coaches that drafted the player. Guys
who get picked by bad teams tend to have a tougher time developing and making an impact; maybe it’s them,
maybe it is the team they are on, and maybe it is a little of both.
Not every can’t-miss prospect makes it and no matter how much money and time is spent researching
and deciding on the pick, there is still an air of uncertainty, even with the surest things. No one can predict
how a college kid will react when drafted and given millions of dollars. Some, like Peyton Manning, take it as
a challenge and work as hard as they can to improve and succeed a coach’s dream. Others see the draft pick
and money as a reward for all the years of work since Pop Warner ball and feel that they have made it and no
longer have to grind to get better as this is it (Mike Williams and Ryan Leaf come to mind).
Of the 18 #1 picks discussed above, there were 10 quarterbacks, 5 defenders, and 1 each of wide
receiver, running back, and offensive linemen. With QB being the most important and toughest position to
play, the bad teams picking near the top are often going to have it as their most pressing need. As we have
seen, picking the best quarterback has mixed results; many of today’s current starters, including the MVP,
Tom Brady, and past MVP’s Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, were not high profile draft picks.
Developing the talent once you draft it is the key, along with making sure the pick fits your team, city,
and system. Of the 18 #1 picks listed above, only 5 have played in the Super Bowl on the team that originally
picked them (Maryland, Peyton, Eli, Bledsoe, and Pace), so the vast majority of #1 picks did not lead their
team to the big stage. Also, far more first round picks do not become stars in the NFL, so where you are
picked seems to be no guarantee of future success. All a team can do is draft the player they feel best fits
their team and system and give that player the opportunity to succeed. After that it is up to the player to work
hard enough to become a star. It appears that some teams know how to follow those steps better than
others. Hint: they are the ones not picking in the top 10 very often.
at the next level. But some did and some did not. There are a myriad of reasons for these results: injuries,
change in scenery, size and speed and equally important, the team and coaches that drafted the player. Guys
who get picked by bad teams tend to have a tougher time developing and making an impact; maybe it’s them,
maybe it is the team they are on, and maybe it is a little of both.
Not every can’t-miss prospect makes it and no matter how much money and time is spent researching
and deciding on the pick, there is still an air of uncertainty, even with the surest things. No one can predict
how a college kid will react when drafted and given millions of dollars. Some, like Peyton Manning, take it as
a challenge and work as hard as they can to improve and succeed a coach’s dream. Others see the draft pick
and money as a reward for all the years of work since Pop Warner ball and feel that they have made it and no
longer have to grind to get better as this is it (Mike Williams and Ryan Leaf come to mind).
Of the 18 #1 picks discussed above, there were 10 quarterbacks, 5 defenders, and 1 each of wide
receiver, running back, and offensive linemen. With QB being the most important and toughest position to
play, the bad teams picking near the top are often going to have it as their most pressing need. As we have
seen, picking the best quarterback has mixed results; many of today’s current starters, including the MVP,
Tom Brady, and past MVP’s Kurt Warner and Brett Favre, were not high profile draft picks.
Developing the talent once you draft it is the key, along with making sure the pick fits your team, city,
and system. Of the 18 #1 picks listed above, only 5 have played in the Super Bowl on the team that originally
picked them (Maryland, Peyton, Eli, Bledsoe, and Pace), so the vast majority of #1 picks did not lead their
team to the big stage. Also, far more first round picks do not become stars in the NFL, so where you are
picked seems to be no guarantee of future success. All a team can do is draft the player they feel best fits
their team and system and give that player the opportunity to succeed. After that it is up to the player to work
hard enough to become a star. It appears that some teams know how to follow those steps better than
others. Hint: they are the ones not picking in the top 10 very often.
Editor's note: As a result of multiple sarcastic comments aimed at the Bears, Bob Loblaw has been suspended indefinitely, without pay, pending a review. |
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